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Good morning partner,
A few things to cover this morning:
** PREMIUM MEMBER REMINDER (If you haven’t yet) ‼
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Yesterday’s Session
After the Phase 2 rebound rally in the AI complex, we seem to be entering into a potential Phase 3.
What’s going on in the background is simply market mechanics at work…
An initial selloff on Thursday and Friday led to some participants and funds (like Leopold Aschenbrenner) to be forced liquidated or at least margin called.
With a record low cash balance reported across Wall Street, I am confident that this was the case for a lot of other retail traders as well.
What happens here is either one of two things:
Participants meet these calls with a cash injection in order to keep their positions
They are effectively forced liquidated and now brokers/alternative managers are left to hold these assets on their books
That’s essentially Phase 1.
During Phase 2, these brokers/alternative managers likely end up selling these assets (that they didn’t want in the first place) after a relief rally or “dead cat bounce.”
Today may or may not have been the beginning of that selling after the rebound.
Nobody really knows…
What I will tell you is this,
I am choosing to steer my capital (and that of Premium members) away from all this noise and confusion.
And instead, I’m choosing to play in the companies who carry the better macro and industry backdrops.
Essentially raising the odds of success for everyone, while at the same time reducing the risk of loss.
You will find we also took over 35% in profits from a PMI trade made two months ago.
Let’s take a look at Yesterday’s leaders and laggards:
Financials, Defensives, Energy.
This is especially important to keep in mind, because on a day when the market decided to give up (temporarily or permanently) on the AI complex…
Capital chose to rotate into the other extreme in the AI-proof real economy plays of the market.
You will notice this is where my recent PMI and GDP reports have led my analysis, as most economic activity expansion is happening within those areas.
Over the past month, you can see how these morning digests have accumulated to show the slow (but steady) rotations away from momentum and high-growth sectors.
From here on out, applying the fundamental “top down” skills will become essential for you to know how to navigate the shifting market preferences.
Or,
You can leave those countless hours of work up to me and the Offside team.
I provided an entire watchlist over the weekend pointing members to the high-quality setups within these PMI breakouts, the ones that provided the bulk of our returns over the past quarter.
Not Your Typical Analyst
We just booked over 30% combined profits on this long/short equity trade by buying Valvoline (VVV) and shorting Valero Energy (VLO.)
The reason?
PMI data led us to a contraction across the petroleum & distillates industry
The only reason diesel spreads were that far apart from crude was the Iran war
November’s midterm elections were the perfect catalyst to close this spread down
After all was said and done…
The elections did ease off the Iran war pressures, and refinery company earnings pointed to some weaker guidance moving forward.
And we booked our gains just yesterday.
That’s the reason why I always emphasize the fact that 80% of my ideas come from reading and breaking down these PMI trends.
As opposed to most retail traders and the advice they get,
Which always seems to start with picking a stock that has either a nice story or a nice-looking chart.
The only chart used in this trade was the mean-reverting spread between VVV and VLO, finding that statistically this was only meant to snap back.
Such is the depth and power of our analysis.
And you can be a part of the next wave of opportunities.
News
CPI Inflation Comes in Hotter than Expected and now traders are betting on 90% odds of a December rate hike from the Fed, I personally don’t have much hope from this Fed which turned out to be as political as Powell.
SoftBank Lost $7 Billion in one day after the Japanese Bank’s AI bets went south during the recent selloffs, showing the real effect of the spreading AI leverage across the global markets.
The Buffett Indicator Warns equity investors of an overvalued stock market, which has been the case for several months now, though it is only recently that economic data and underlying earnings quality shows the real risks of an overpriced market.
Anthropic Targets a $1.4 Trillion IPO valuation in its upcoming launch to market, however, after digging through the entire S-1 filing we have come to the conclusion that a more realistic valuation target would be closer to $800 billion.
Movers & ES Levels
Take-Two Interactive 📈 Popped over 8% after reporting its initial GTA VI figures topped Wall Street analyst revenue estimates, an outcome I posted about on my Twitter nearly a year ago.
Securitize 📈 Gained more than 22.4% after a takeover announcement of River One to expand on its security tokenization targets, expanding on a whole new thematic investment opportunity in the asset class.
On Holding 📉 Lost 7.5% after reporting a slowdown in its Americas revenue, failing to make up for that through their Chinese segments as well, killing a thesis we cut off the portfolio last quarter.
NVIDIA 📉 Slipped 5.4% after Jensen Huang admitted to having an affair with an alleged Chinese industry spy, adding to the pile of company-specific risks that have mounted pressure on its valuation premium.
Now let’s get into some ES levels for today.
Yesterday I gave you the $7,550-$7,615 range for the index a the next possible trading leg.
We are now sitting at roughly $7,600 to confirm the market has room to move higher, even with yesterday being a day where the AI complex gave up some gains.
Still, I cannot call this a clean win for the bulls until $7,615 is closed above and cleared completely.
Which means if you’re a buyer, it wouldn’t be wise to chase the price here if you failed to buy in at $7,550.
If you’re a seller, however, now might be a good time t think about stepping in, especially if we break past $7,615 to $7,650 only to see us go back toward $7,615 as a failed breakout.
In my view, that would be a very powerful top reversal to consider playing into.
Portfolio
Yesterday we ended up buying another PMI winner to the mix, and is already up close to 1.5% in the pre-market session today.
This is a company you know and have seen around the world, probably since you were a child.
It is now at 50% off its all-time high, and my valuation work suggests we could squeeze out roughly 45-60% upside from this particular situation.
Premium members got the tip yesterday.
This week, they get the rest of the research and target scenarios.
Here’s the positioning update for today’s premium members:
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