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FALSE ALARM
Landstar System (LSTR) fell to 63% of its 52-week high after the freight industry suffered a small scare.
The Cass Freight Index declined by an average of 1.8% from May to July 2026, exactly the three months that made up LSTR’s latest quarter.
The result?
A stock that suddenly became expensive relative to truck load rates and activity, leading to an ~18% selloff as a reaction.
Now the market is turning, confirmed by another monthly breakout in the PMI data, pointing to expanding activity in the transportation & warehousing area of the economy.
LSTR? Still cheap, despite a 5.0% jump in the Cass Freight Index since the quarterly decline.
Chances are the stock is going to soon come into the market’s crosshairs, especially as the revenue drivers into next quarter continue to load up for an expectations beat.
All while the company’s CEO bought a huge bulk of shares after the stock sold off…
It’s pretty simple really.
I have to be honest though.
Not everything about this LSTR setup is good news, as there is a good reason (beyond the Cass contraction) for the stock’s decline.
Insurance claims took out a sizeable chunk of the bottom-line earnings per share (EPS) this quarter, and this is a risk that has yet to be cleared going into the next quarter.
However,
This much drawdown has likely already priced in this insurance hit for the company, leaving us with exactly the type of setup I love to play on PMIs.
Tails I win, heads I win even more.
Let’s get into it,
The Freight Cycle is Turning; This Stock Hasn't Caught Up (Yet.)
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