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Good morning partner,
A few things to cover this morning:
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Yesterday’s Session
It has now been four consecutive days where the market rotation continues to accelerate more and more.
The pace of unwinding out of AI and technology stocks is hitting a record pace, according to Goldman Sachs and its prime brokerage flows data.
Last month, I would’ve told you this is the tug-of-war between hyperscalers and chipmakers, which was the clear norm in these aggressive market rotations.
But,
It seems that both are now being affected by the unwind, as freshly liquidated capital wants to head into defensive real economy names instead.
Similar to the fourth quarter of 2025, I am beginning to see this in factor performance and institutional flows.
Which makes sense…
GDP and PMI data this month have demonstrated AI lost its grip on the economy, and growth contributions started to be found in these more defensive and stable quality businesses instead.
That’s extremely important for you and your portfolio, because there’s an entirely different asset class that outperforms during S&P and NASDAQ rotations.
It’s an asset class most institutions can’t buy due to mandate constraints, so they can’t sell (because they don’t own them) to rotate elsewhere.
Even better,
It has nothing to do with AI.
Let’s take a look at Yesterday’s leaders and laggards:
Healthcare, Real Estate, Utilities.
It seems the market is continuing to bet on a “growth shock” in the economy, which is exactly what the GDP print told us last quarter.
Where the trend used to point to continuous growth from AI investments, the winds have now shifted to more realistic paths found in the real economy.
That’s why these leaders are taking off.
These sectors have one thing in common, and it is that during growth shocks with some level of inflation to them, they can continue to raise prices accordingly without much disruption to demand.
You still have to receive healthcare, buy/rent a house, and pay your electricity bill.
That doesn’t sound like the type of investments you’d want to make during a red-hot economy driven by technological innovation, does it?
It’s why I was so quick to grab the opportunity in wood products once the PMI showed me a clear breakout signal in the industry.
And,
It’s also the reason why my recent buys in that space have done so well even through a choppy rotation and AI volatility spreading to the indexes.
Laws of Capital
There is a direct relationship between how much you invest into something.
And how much capital you get back from that investment.
Whether it be an asset, a country, an idea…
It doesn’t matter; the laws of capital dictate that at a certain cutoff point, more money thrown in doesn’t equal better or equal returns.
Just look at how South Korea’s stock market did after the nation decided to invest less of its capital as a share of GDP:
Capital Investment went from ~37% in 1996 to ~30% in 1998
The KOSPI index went on to deliver a 400%+ return since
I like to begin my macro ideas, when investing in international companies, with a study of how that nation’s capital is doing.
Then its population, structure, and governance laws.
And,
I found one country in the fastest-growing region of the world that just began a multi-year decline in its investment intensity ratio.
A country that already owns 45% of the AI market, sells more electric vehicles than Tesla, and owns most of the global trade volumes across the global economy.
People still think of it as the copycat of the world…
Those who have traveled there confirm they are becoming innovators instead (I can also confirm)
Like it or not, that country is China, and its stock market could be about to embark on a decade-long outperformance compared to most countries.
The industries, companies, and structures I like for it are coming to your inbox.
Meanwhile,
News
A New Data Center IPO for Elice stock ended up in a 33% crash as the market continues to reject the idea of more AI investments, especially in data centers whose financials are at the center of all risks.
Intuitive Surgical Lowers guidance after demand for robot-led surgical procedures slows down beyond what was planned for, showing another area where AI may not find the growth leg most expected.
A new $8 Billion Bailout for farmers is being considered by Trump, which would significantly aid the current input cost spikes for farmers across all products. A net win for this new egg farming company I bought.
Salesforce Acquires Braze as a new addition to its AI-led marketing tools, showing yet again that software companies (adaptive ones) are able to survive the “AI will kill software narrative.”
Movers & ES Levels
Berkshire Hathaway 📈 Gained 1.5% as investors continue to rotate out of AI stocks and into defensive companies, attracted by the firm’s record cash position enabling it to make purchases soon.
Dream Finders Homes 📈 Spiked by 11% after announcing it will acquire homebuilding competitor Beazer Homes, reiterating my view of a rebound in the real estate market and backing this recent wood products purchase.
DaVita 📉 Slipped by 6.3% after the government announced efforts to increase competition in the dialysis space, turning me away from what I previously considered a great buying opportunity.
IREN 📉 Lost 4% after investors questioned just how the company would expand on its data center operations while avoiding the same outcomes seen in CoreWeave and Oracle.
Now let’s get into some ES levels for today.
I am taking the same levels from the initial weekly balance and expanding the distribution.
Where $7,750 still acts as the tipping point between a run toward $7,700 being the cutoff level in this distribution.
Moreover, $7,785 has been hit as overhead resistance given last week, where the auction will decide if we make our way back toward $7,800.
In my view, this de-risking and rotations out of AI will make that hard to be the case, unless the tide turns in favor of momentum and growth again some time this week.
That said,
$7,711 is where aggressive buyers started to turn up, as if to defend that line in the sand marked at $7,700.
Sellers know this and might want to tackle that level next, unless the previously aggressive sellers set at $7,785 get taken out today, where ramming through that level would allow the buyers to clear the $7,700 risk for now.
If you’re a buyer, a dip back to $7,750 or below is your chance, as long as we don’t lose $7,700-$7,711.
Sellers may want to wait for the reaction at $7,785 to make a decision today.
Portfolio
The PMI picks from earlier this month are doing a great job at driving the portfolio past the 9.0% mark again.
We are, as expected, back on track to make new all-time highs before the end of the year.
Especially as a new cash flow operation began in our last acquisition, which allows for a very lucrative options income opportunity.
What I expect now is to keep watching the rest of the long/short spreads we have on to determine which (if any) need any cutting or adjusting.
For the rest of the year, if the AI rotation accelerates and creates a bullish scenario in the specific asset classes covered earlier this week.
Then the optionality of home runs is back on the table.
You will be the first to know.
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