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GOT FERTILIZER?
Phosphate prices have gone up by ~50% on average across the world.
I’m no farmer, but I do know that this directly impacts crop margins and ultimately drive discretionary spending in the agricultural sector of the United States.
Because of the Iran War, and the Hormuz disruptions, available supply of fertilizer chemicals has tightened significantly.
Meaning,
Farmers have a harder time turning a profit now compared to last year, and their incentive to output more inventory for the food supply chain is diminished.
If you follow this logic, then you can spot the reason why a stock like Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO) is now trading at 47% of its 52-week high.
Lower margins + Increased uncertainty = Less durable goods spending.
However,
I believe that in a post-war market, prices for crop inputs like Phosphate and fuels will normalize.
That likely leads to the opposite setup we have today, led by increased profits and spending ability from farmers.
That trickles down into TSCO revenues, but now we must question whether it is the right company to choose in this mix.
That said, this will be a very brief coverage to give you the setup.
What follows is a proper deep dive into the company, its risks, and valuation cases.
We broke down the Domino’s Deep Dive for you already, and it’s been crushing the market by 5%.
Will you be part of what’s next? Become an Offside Premium member now.
CHART OF THE DAY
The entire AI trade rests on its ability to prove two things:
Enough revenue to turn a profit
Productivity gains for users
While there is some revenue and productivity growth, it likely isn’t enough to justify the trillion-dollar capex wave.
ARE YOU COVERED? —>
Otherwise, token costs would not be falling off a cliff.
Less demand, less justification for AI spending, and the next domino falls.
We’ve covered the entire ecosystem in a thematic deep dive for Offside Premium.
FARMING IS COMING BACK
PMI Demand Gauges, Offside Capital
Most of 2025 was rough for the agricultural industry.
Then, as food inflation began to make headlines on tightened supply and unfavorable farmer economics, activity spiked toward the fourth quarter and into February of 2026 as an attempt to normalize supply-driven inflation.
With the Iran war breakout, this breakout came to a halt, as two months of eerily quiet business took place before May’s reading.
May’s PMI gave markets the most aggressive expansion in over a year, for two of the gauges that matter most in the PMI:
Business Activity
New Orders
They’re vital because they directly point to new and ongoing demand for products and services.
However,
This hasn’t directly translated into rallies for companies sitting on top of the value chain.
Like: CF Industries (CF) and Mosaic (MOS)
Based on that price action, we must figure out what is keeping markets from bidding these names after a PMI breakout.
I believe it all comes down to uncertainty around when and how Hormuz will end up opening.
How does this affect TSCO specifically?
We will get a PMI update next week, where a further trend in the agricultural industry will either continue or stop out.
I will send an analysis of the results for all industries as PMIs are released, so pay attention to agriculture specifically as you keep track of this current thesis.
Roughly 72% of TSCO revenues come from their consumable, usable, and edible (CUE) segment. (full presentation available inside Offside Premium.)
By nature, these products are more of a need rather than a discretionary spend item.
Therefore, I believe TSCO has a better chance of staging a recovery from today’s price over some of its peers.
However,
The market is right about the driver behind this current selloff:
Management guidance for comparable sales landed between 1-3% for 2026.
By now, it’s clear TSCO won’t be able to meet that target.
But,
There’s a very big difference between unmet expectations and what the business is actually accomplishing today:
Earnings per share (EPS) remain intact.
So this story is more about future expectations reflected in a lower forward P/E multiple.
That is exactly why I like this setup, because the market has mistakenly taken the current Hormuz disruption and potentially pushed it far into the future, as if the supply chain would never normalize again.
Wall Street analysts know this is far from reality, and their EPS growth consensus show it.
Industry Earnings Growth, Offside Capital
Agriculture products and equipment fall inside the Basic Materials sector, which we’ve adjusted to exclude most (if not all) of the AI-related materials that carry speculative growth targets.
Tying this all together,
I believe the current price uncertainty and input cost spikes caused by Hormuz are driving farmers to cut down their discretionary spending.
TSCO is held by the CUE defensive segment, which is still somewhat affected by this extraordinary cycle, though it is clearly bound to recover.
The real risk comes from the discretionary segments,
Construction, gardening, and DIY projects are not a thing right now in a depressed US economy.
Which is why Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW), and other consumer names trade at similar discounts.
This isn’t a company-specific issue, rather an industry-specific one.
And analysts believe this stock can rally by 50%.
Our deep dive will show whether we agree or not, and what price makes TSCO a good buy.
WHAT’S THE TRADE?
For this agriculture and fertilizer chemicals play, I would like to see some recovery breakouts happen in the upper range of the value chain before the end-users benefit.
By this, I mean names aforementioned like:
CF Industries (CF)
Mosaic (MOS)
Both of which seem to be consolidating at the bottom ranges now, and I expect higher prices out of these in the coming months and quarters.
What follows is a trickle-down benefit into related areas in the farming and equipment value chain.
That’s where we may see names like Deere (DE) and Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO) benefit as well.
All to say, we have time, lots of time.
I am in the final stages of due diligence for this deal, and passing all checkmarks would prompt me to begin positioning into TSCO.
Chances are, given the timeline across the chain broken down here, this will be a DCA operation over the next 18-23 weeks.
Deep dive coming for Premium members…
A Final Note
COMING UP NEXT
As the S&P makes all-time highs, other sectors and their ETFs have significantly fallen behind, signaling where weakness (and opportunities) may come from next.
We’ll cover what these areas are, what their corrections mean, and what would make them attractive targets.
The stage will be set up prior to PMI releases next week, where the ultimate signal through industry data will be revealed for these ideas.
In the meantime, here’s the latest Jordi Visser video on the state of the AI trade, while I do not agree 100% with what he says, it’s good to check on what the other side is thinking right now:
Until next time,
OFFSIDE RESEARCH
Against the Tape, Ahead of the Curve.