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BORING BUSINESSES
ROAD Revenue Trajectory, Offside Capital
Beer was the best trade of 2013.
The reason was surprisingly simple:
A handful of brands (Heineken, Ambev, Coors) began buying a lot of other competitors
The reduction in participants created better economics for the roller-ups
Returns in excess of 100% soon followed
I think the same playbook is unfolding in one of the most boring industries in America:
Hot-Mixed Asphalt
Construction Partners (ROAD) is growing its M&A book by the dozen each year, a strategy that began after the COVID slowdown in federal funding for construction projects.
Cheap competitors spread across the Sunbelt Region of the United States were bought up by ROAD, and thus boosting its economic growth by double-digit CAGR.
Consensus estimates place revenue targets for $6 billion by 2030, compared to $2.8 billion in 2025.
As aggressive as this may seem…
I 100% have to agree with this take after digging through the company, especially the recent quarterly results (which sent the stock higher by 20%+.)
The best part isn’t the growth,
Rather, it’s how we’ll get there:
ROAD is a 100% domestic business, keeping the tariff risks away from it
AI is not something that will disrupt road and bridge construction, if anything, it could amplify operating efficiencies on the backend
The company’s products and services are designed to feed off of government spending budgets, and are actually inflation beneficiaries on a net basis
If you recall, this is the exact trifecta I was looking for in my initial mid-caps screening thesis.
Even after a 20% rally on earnings…
The interesting question isn’t whether ROAD goes higher.
It’s at what price does the thesis actually offer an attractive risk/reward on your money.
Today I’m breaking down the acquisitions, margins, backlog, and valuation that could make - or break - my thesis.
Here’s the price where I want to own ROAD, and why:
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