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Good morning partner,
A few things to cover this morning:
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Friday’s Session
I went into Friday thinking that we would see a rebound in some of the tug-of-war names to benefit the AI complex rather than the defensive real economy rotation theme.
However,
What we got was a bit of a mess all over, as it seems the broader de-risking is affecting most sectors alike.
There is still one main thematic interest going on in the market, as yesterday’s weekly plan factor performance section demonstrated:
Value, Size, Breadth
That’s where the market wants to go into, and the type of characteristics you should look for in your next buying decisions for your portfolio.
Let’s also not forget that there is an economic growth shock event happening as well.
Up to $3.7 trillion (maybe more by now) of AI loans are now at risk of going unpaid according to how the financials look for most AI lab companies, which is getting even worse now that token prices are down 60% on the year.
Some think these lower prices will spike demand, but that’s a hard thing to lean on when all studies show zero enhancements in the economy outside of technology by implementing AI.
At the end of the day,
We don’t want to be caught in the middle of this endless debate which nobody really knows how it will end up.
I would much rather find these AI-proof businesses that carry all the factors mentioned above.
So that’s what I did last week, and ended up catching an 18% rally on this boring company with over 200% upside left.
Let’s take a look at Friday’s leaders and laggards:
Energy, Technology, Real Estate.
I don’t think any of this leadership is truly reflective of what is happening underneath the tape across the markets.
Energy’s gain can be credited to the escalations out of the Middle East, with crude oil reaching past $100/barrel again.
What’s interesting here is that diesel has gone down from its highs while oil continues to keep the higher levels, which is directly proving our long/short equity spread thesis in diesel right.
Then for technology, I think this is best explained by the rebound in the chipmaking groups, as we’re about to see earnings from SK Hynix and Intel this week and verify our oversupply thesis development.
Now the best for last…
Real estate managed to lead during a broader market selloff and de-risking event, and I can’t say I’m surprised.
This month’s PMI report analysis led you straight into the breakout of food items and wood products.
From that signal, our stock picks have managed to outperform the S&P 500 and AI complex by over 15% this week alone.
So no, I am not surprised to see real estate continue to hold its ground during the volatility.
What Paradox?
I’ve seen lots of recent posts calling on Jevons’ Paradox to justify the crash in token prices.
A paradox which states:
Lower token prices will lead to more demand
More demand will lead to more compute capacity construction
More capacity construction will lead to lower token prices
And the cycle magically repeats itself into eternity…
Well, the most recent data from Ramp has demonstrated this paradox is no different than predictive technical analysis.
Token spend has increased only 0.2% in September, down from 1.0% in August before it.
All despite token prices crashing by over 60% this year alone.
Why should you care?
Because there are $3.7 trillion now tied up behind loans directly dependent on token spend going up.
If Anthropic or OpenAI cannot make good on their compute obligations to large tech firms, then these loans go unfunded and essentially default.
Have you seen credit default swaps (CDS) lately?
Just like every episode of irresponsible leverage and debt financing, when things go bad, the ones at the top look for the greater fool to offload their risk onto.
Right now, NVIDIA has found that greater fool through:
Pensions, savings, insurance floats
The only unsuspecting customers who are still willing to buy these loans, unknowing of what is about to hit them.
Again, why involve yourself in this mess?
There are areas which historically outperform the S&P 500 in episodes of concentration and de-risking (like today’s.)
Areas which are being screened for winning stocks as we speak, and our picks will soon be released to Offside Premium members.
Meanwhile,
News
French Bond Risk spikes amid vandalism and looting going on for a second week in major cities, I believe this is going to represent a financial pressure point for upcoming elections as markets cast their vote on the future of Europe.
Final Election Rounds will take place in Brazil, where results will create a new set of opportunities to consider in the nation’s stock market, which I believe has some of the most upside in the world.
Trump Adjusts Canadian Tariffs to section 338, so far I do not see any changes to the wood products industry, which may continue to boost domestic production and demand as spotted in our PMI breakout.
Vital Farms Initiates a pilot program at select stores to boost their household penetration rate (and also move unsold inventory from the egg glut), exactly the type of management reaction I was looking for in this Part 2 financial analysis of the company.
Movers & ES Levels
Robert Half 📈 Spiked over 22% after reporting its first quarterly earnings growth since 2022, another reiteration to the real economy rotation and recovery as jobs continue to grow.
CrowdStrike & Palo Alto Networks📈 Both rose over 7% after some PHP and AI agent risks resurfaced to boost the software trade around cybersecurity and AI control, looks like the toll booth is still alive.
Bloom Energy 📉 Lost over 11% after posting negative free cash flow and a weaker quarter than expected, unsurprisingly they are also relying on the data center financials to make sense in order to get paid.
Wireless Companies 📉 Slipped past 5% on average as competition threats from SpaceX arise, Starlink may end up replacing a lot of the phone carriers we are now used to treating as monopolies.
Now let’s get into some ES levels for today.
The move below $7,685 was completed as warned last week, leading us to the bottom half of the current distribution.
I will move the cutoff point to $7,700 once again down from $7,750 as the most disputed area for buyers and sellers to win over.
For now it is clear sellers need to ram through $7,650 for a move toward $7,600 and consolidate for a bit.
Buyers need to do everything they can to reclaim $7,685 and move toward $7,700 and close above it.
I expect sellers to become passive on a move higher only to come in aggressively at $7,715 or so as the momentum calls on buyers to provide the opening.
Portfolio
Our recent picks in the PMI breakouts and micro-cap defensives have done wonders to get us near a new all-time high in the portfolio’s performance.
Which, since its inception in June 2026, has already realized $15,200 in profits versus a current paper loss of $5,400.
Roughly a 3:1 risk/reward for those of you who like to track that metric as a way to judge a portfolio.
Here’s a better statistic:
We have outperformed the S&P 500 by over 12% while carrying less than 6% annualized volatility
That is the true benchmark of success I am looking to keep and expand upon.
This week will likely be slower in terms of portfolio executions, unless some of our watchlist names come into the price structure I’m looking for and/or current holdings fall out of them to be cut.
Meanwhile, stay tuned for the options rolling that will take place in November for the memory bearish trade (which is up for renewal into April of next year.)
Don’t forget to grab a free spot into our November webinar as well, where we’ll cover “Where Alpha Still Lives” for the next decade in financial markets.
What your money does for you in this timeframe will depend on whether you know where to find opportunities, especially as the S&P 500 is now set up for a lost decade.
Here’s the positioning update for today’s premium members:
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