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Good morning partner,
Few things to cover this morning:
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Yesterday’s Session
Yesterday was a bit of an inner rotation in the extremes within the AI trades, especially as semis led the day with memory taking a back seat.
This could be due to several things, like information about new competitors entering the memory chip market and threatening to increase supply in the coming months.
It is quite interesting to see these “bottlenecks” sell down during a day when most of the AI complex is up (most AI names in the Offside Portfolio gained over 6% yesterday.)
Notice I said interesting, but not surprising.
After digging through all the production and delivery schedules across the memory sector, it turns out a massive amount of chips will be hitting the market in 2028.
Markets are forward looking.
And they are already discounting most memory names in terms of P/E ahead of that 2028 disaster.
Let’s take a look at yesterday’s leaders and laggards:
Utilities, Consumer Cyclical, Defensives.
Even though yesterday was a broad equity rally, it’s clear that these leaders are centered around a more defensive nature to say the least.
After reading about the Services PMI report from yesterday, it makes all the sense in the world to see this sort of rotation happening.
It’s also happening during a day when bond yields retreated a bit, sending bids and capital into the areas that the market perceives as “coiled springs.”
This reaction is very encouraging right now, especially as we continue to build our watchlist around the PMI signals we received last week.
Economic Reset
Credit markets are most synonymous with the economic periods of 2022.
In many ways, so is the business and the rates cycle.
Coincidentally, that was also when the last proper bear market took place in the S&P 500 (which just made new all-time highs yesterday.)
So I’m not here to tell you sell everything and become a bear right now, if the market wants to go higher then let it find its footing above today’s prices.
The Offside portfolio has been riding this wave all along through AI and non-AI stocks alike.
What I am saying though is that credit acts as the gauge to how much higher a market can go.
No more room for credit really leaves no more room for businesses and consumers to keep spending and financing purchases at today’s aggressive pace.
There’s also the cost issue, as inflation indicators from both PMI reports now point to ~3.8% PCE inflation over the next six months.
Here’s what usually happens…
Cyclical businesses take a back seat and give way for defensive names with pricing power - and an ability to pass down costs - to take the lead.
Yesterday’s read on the Services PMI confirms this, and our current stock watchlist has been designed to squeeze as much upside as we can from this current setup.
More importantly,
We must ask where all this credit stress is coming from, and I am absolutely certain it is due to the trillions of dollars in GPU-backed loans currently headed underwater as chips depreciated by 50% this year alone.
Most aren’t ready for that conversation.
If you are, here’s the math behind that credit tail risk.
News
GPU-Backed Loans Spread to Asia as more banks and tech firms make deals to package these loans, the exact instrument that is beginning to fail in the trillions inside the U.S.
Hormuz Trade Flows Rise to which new strikes came as a response, energy markets are reacting as you would think, yet our diesel spread trade is staying strong on future expectations of resolution.
Ray Dalio Warns that China and Japan may start pulling back from U.S. Treasury securities, which is a warning I sent a month ago in my carry trade analysis. However, bond ETF flows tell a different story, might be time to buy into bonds soon.
Google Signed a Billionaire agreement with Constellation Energy for future nuclear energy supply to tend to data centers, which mostly explains the reason why utilities led on the day.
Movers & ES Levels
Vistra 📈 Climbed over 10% after Trump announced further support for future nuclear energy needs in the economy and the AI complex, perhaps it’s time to look back at this trade.
AMD 📈 Gained just under 3% after Citigroup hiked its price target, aiming at better CPU demand on Meta’s Muse launch filling those new orders.
Seagate 📉 Slipped by 9% after a Japanese rival entered the scene, a theme that keeps repeating across most of the AI complex right now.
Uber 📉 Fell near 1.5% after announcing a $2.3 billion acquisition of workplace catering platform ezCater to add a new market footprint to its delivery business, which has now overtaken mobility as the growth engine.
Now let’s get into some ES levels for today.
$7,850 proved to be a great area for aggressive buyers to come in and take us higher into a new distribution.
An all-time high is nothing to play with, so unless you’re already long, I would sit this one out until a new balancing range is established on the index.
$7,800 to $7,850 is the bottom half of this distribution, where I would want to see price go back into and establish some volume profiles.
I would start trading there again or outside of it, but from $7,850 to $7,900 it looks like it could be no man’s land and whipsaw a lot of excited new participants.
Let’s settle the auction next Friday when options expiration day hits and dealers create their new call and put “walls” for the month.
I believe we will range between $7,800-$7,850 and $7,850-$7,900 until that options event takes place.
Small 50-point ranges to trade if you must, though experience tells me it would be much better to sit it out until options expiry.
Portfolio
We remain rangebound between 7-9% in the net portfolio performance since June 2026.
Most of the names we added risk to last week ended up carrying a lot of the upside we saw yesterday in the portfolio.
The latest addition to the mix, coming from the PMI signals, will be reviewed for another potential round of buying this week.
There’s a secondary name which just entered into the price range I’ve been waiting for over a month.
Keep in mind, this is still “bunts” rather than home runs season…
But,
As some of the cleanest PMI signals land on our pipeline, I expect to still see some behavior that is reflective of explosive upside.
Here’s the positioning update for today’s premium members:
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