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Good morning partner,
Few things to cover this morning:
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Friday’s Session
The tug-of-war keeps easing as both the AI complex and hyperscalers go up together, this is despite the continued rise in bond yields and geopolitical uncertainties happening still.
I will be honest here, I don’t know the reason why the tug-of-war is turning into an agreement, and there’s no way to know if this is a fluke or the new norm…
What I can tell you is this,
I think the economic data we received last week in GDP and PMI have made it very clear that a rotation is beginning to build outside of AI, which sort of explains the hyperscaler rally side of the equation.
What it does not explain is why semis/memory are now rallying alongside everything else when the economy is clearly headed the other way.
Through tests and personal experience, I can tell you that the economy and the market behave in lockstep ~88% of the time, and when they don’t, that’s the time for you to go digging deeper and find the best correction opportunities as they show up.
We are in such an episode right now, at peak uncertainty.
As nobody can really call the timing of this resolution, I will reiterate my recommendation to adopt a more flexible strategy through long/short equity and/or options.
These allow you to be wrong on the timing, and oftentimes on the direction of your idea, and still walk out with a profit or at least a very small and controlled loss.
That’s exactly what I’m beginning to build around the memory complex, especially as it shows signs of a peak in the capital cycle after Micron’s latest earnings.
Let’s take a look at yesterday’s leaders and laggards:
Industrials, Materials, Technology.
The top two leaders are directly tied to the data center buildout continuing to see support and more aggressive guidance.
Which is why I will keep my AAON vs JCI spread trade on for now, even as it pulled back to disagree with this broader expansion theme.
Even within the PMI, respondents involved in this buildout mentioned “local pushback against data centers” as a big concern, especially after Oracle’s failed Jupiter project and Anthropic’s finances showing an inability to meet their compute commitments.
Anyway, since we already have a trade attached to the data center theme, let’s focus on what chose to rally outside of this complex.
Consumer cyclicals.
This one is interesting, because the 10-year yield remains well above 5% still, keeping the consumer “coiled spring” from releasing so far.
In other words,
The market is behaving as if bond term-premiums are already beginning to come lower (they’re not), so perhaps they are more focused on the latest GDP print and PMI data supporting the breakout in select consumer areas.
Such as housing, seen in sudden swings from wood products and furniture…
From that behavior, I dug in deep and found the perfect watchlist to keep in mind for the coming months as more bullish evidence comes to support this theme.
After several tests, statistics show a high probability of positive one-month returns in the watchlist names.
Warning Shots
High yield credit spreads are spiking.
As you can see, every time credit markets show signs of stress, equity markets sell lower to reflect the rising economic uncertainty that keeps businesses from performing at their best.
This was to be expected, especially after both Oracle’s and Anthropic’s financial disasters came to light.
Data center investments will push their ROI toward 2030 (if nothing else goes wrong) and GPU-backed loans are a few months away from being underwater, a point when trillions of dollars in losses will be handed to someone to absorb.
Right now, that’s insurance companies.
NVIDIA recruited the likes of Apollo, KKR, and AIG to reinsure these loans as Anthropic and OpenAI will fail to meet their compute commitments, which in turn make the lenders insolvent for those loans.
The credit market is screaming at this issue, and so are bond yields.
What used to be a contained risk within AI and technology has become an issue for the entire economy and perhaps the financial system.
So far I’ve spotted ~$3.7 trillion in total paper trading on these data center commitments and GPU-backed loans.
When you take an average of 2.5x leverage covenants on these loans and commitments (some are as high as 15.0x), you quickly get to a net risk of ~$9.25 trillion.
That’s roughly 30% of the U.S. GDP.
News
Bessent Says No to AI Regulation from the government, saying these companies should police themselves. Of course, if AI finances fail, the government cannot be blamed due to its regulations slowing down the free market disaster.
The SEC Pressures Apollo to report their private credit assets on a daily basis as worries about NVIDIA’s risk dumping surge. The problem is, private credit does not fluctuate unless there is a transaction that forces the asset to be revalued.
Trump Holds Diesel Ban after the G7 summit, economists warned that a ban would end in long-term inflationary effects to make matters worse. This puts the chips back on the table for a midterm elections resolution to our diesel spread trade.
Amazon Dumps $8 Billion of NVIDIA chips through an off-balance sheet special-purpose vehicle deal, opaquing the public admission that these chips are losing their value faster than everyone expected.
Movers & ES Levels
Tesla 📈 Gained 4.65% after beating Wall Street vehicle delivery expectations, as pointed out in my GDP read, consumers are somehow still spending on cars through peak pessimism and inflation worries, great news for us.
HPE 📈 Rose 7.4% after posting new bullish guidance rooted in more data center and cloud infrastructure spending demand, the AI trade roars on, though it’s becoming more consolidated than it was three months ago.
Nike 📉 Slipped 3.6% after disappointing results and layoffs announced, part consumer issues and part company issues. The truth is many are falling for this value trap without understanding what’s really happening to Nike.
Seagate & Western Digital 📉 Both fell by over 10% as rivals in Asia announced new capacity to come online and beat down prices for these former winners, exactly the same setup I’ve analyzed and broken down in the memory complex.
Now let’s get into some ES levels for today.
If you listened to my take from last week, congratulations on making the run from $7,700 to $7,800 all week.
However,
That run could lose momentum this week as the high-yield spreads and bond volatility begin to make their way into influencing equity markets.
Which is why I think we saw aggressive sellers step in at the $7,800-$7,810 range previously given.
This now leaves us with two extremes to trade as a balance for the week, being $7,800 to $7,700 at first, and then extending lower to $7,650 if broken.
Within that balance there are plenty of areas where participants could react aggressively or passively, but that will become clear as the week unfolds.
For now, that broader balance acts as the range to keep in mind if you absolutely have to take a view on the S&P swings.
Portfolio
We remain rangebound between 7-9% in the net portfolio performance since June 2026.
This month will be decisive for the long/short equity spreads I have on for the data center buildout & AI trade, especially as momentum is slowing for the long legs of the stock positions and economic data (like GDP and PMI) continue to show a rotation away from the AI complex.
No need to worry though, as I’ve finally gotten sufficient confirmation of where the next wave of profits may be coming from, especially as the price action broken down in my report shows signs of accumulation.
Over the coming weeks, I will be covering my deep dives on those companies, and alert members on when I decide to buy them if ever.
Here’s the positioning update for today’s premium members:
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