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THE HEADLINE
ADBE 3Q26 Earnings Snapshot, Offside Capital
AI will kill software.
That’s what everyone’s been told about one of the easiest trades of 2026, I’m sure glad I’ve never been eager to bite the apple that markets conveniently feed retail.
Whenever narratives like these arise, you must ask yourself the following question:
Is uncertainty going to affect the business for one year or longer?
If the answer is yes, you are probably going to get a tremendous bargain contingent you can close the gap between the market’s expectations and reality.
One year ago, the uncertainty around software seemed to stretch out many years into the future, which is why the narrative worked so well in beating down the industry as a whole.
However,
That uncertainty seems to have cleared out for the most part, as Salesforce (CRM), Snowflake (SNOW), and even Adobe (ADBE) are posting 100%+ growth rates in AI revenue.
If anything, these companies are successfully onboarding AI capabilities to expand on their service offers, and at the same time canceling out the old “AI will kill software” narrative.
When I bought ADBE at $208, expectations were overly pessimistic, and even in the $240 range, they still are far from the reality being demonstrated so far this year.
Margins are intact
Free cash flow is growing
New customers across disciplines are being onboarded
AI revenues jumped 150%
That doesn’t sound like a failing business, much less one getting eaten or “killed” by AI.
Today, we’ll go over all the numbers, a check on our original ADBE thesis, and a valuation update.
Let’s get into it.
Adobe Beat Everything. The Stock Still Fell.
EXPECTATIONS CHECK
Price-Implied DCF, Offside Capital
Besides all the noise around Adobe’s survivability in a new AI world, CEO changes, and whether it can retain its moat or not…
I’m here to remind you that most of our investment strategy - and decisions - come down to expectations, and whether we can make sense/disprove what the market is already pricing into today’s price.
For Adobe in the $240 range, the following must be true:
4% revenue growth for the next 15 years
33.5% EBIT margins with the most recent being 36.2%
1% capex intensity compared to the most recent 0.8%
As you can already see, expected EBIT margins are well below what the company is already delivering (effortlessly at that) in a world filled with threats.
More importantly,
Adobe’s quarter showed 13% revenue growth with an insane 150% jump in AI-first revenues, making that 4% expectation look unrealistic to say the least.
In other words,
$240 is justified as long as the above holds, and seeing that reality is most likely going to be above the range, I would say higher prices are warranted for Adobe.
Here’s the interesting part…
Adobe beat expectations and raised EPS guidance once again, the same mix that drove a 20%+ rally in names like SNOW and CRM.
However, there’s something different about Adobe this time around.
A new CEO, and ongoing uncertainty around monetizing new users.
Let’s tackle the CEO first, and then break down the quantitative proof that Adobe is running as strong as ever before
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